Chemicals: Macroeconomic weakness in the fourth quarter
In the first three quarters of the year, the domestic macro economy as a whole performed well, not only achieving the goal of a soft landing, but also continued to maintain a steady monetary policy and the overall implementation of structural adjustment policies, the GDP growth rate rebounded slightly. The data show that in August 2017, the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.0% year-on-year, and that of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.7% from January to August. Taken together, the growth rate of production of high-energy-consuming manufacturing industries has continued to decline, but high-tech and equipment manufacturing industries have maintained relatively rapid growth, and related investments have also accelerated to emerging industries. The growth rate of the double-income investment continued to increase. Along with the industrial transformation and upgrading, the Chinese economy accelerated the conversion of new and old kinetic energy.
In the chemical industry, the implementation of the environmental protection supervision policy was fully implemented, and the backward production capacity was fully cleared, and the prosperity of some industries rebounded. In addition, the demand growth in the emerging areas was significant, especially in the first half of the year for the coal and steel industry due to industrial capacity. The rate and value center were continuously revised, and the profitability of the company was continuously improved. In the first half of the year, the bull market created by the black products represented a collective turnaround to win a good situation. In addition, the inventory cycle supported the operation status of the company. Overall improvement.
However, in the traditional demand season of the Jin 9 Silver 10 chemical industry, the market trend was unsatisfactory. As no obvious bright spots appeared in the growth of domestic demand, and the storm of environmental protection policies fell to a moderate level, the operating rate of some industries gradually recovered and even remained at a high level over the years. However, the actual consumption did not show a substantial increase. The signs of growth have led to a sharp dive in the black products, but the industry operating rate is still at a high level, and the follow-up is likely to enter the destocking cycle again. Therefore, the overheating of some industries in the first half of the year will be further adjusted after entering the fourth quarter, which is not conducive to the clearing of outdated production capacity, and will probably lead to a loss of results in the phase of supply-side structural adjustment. Therefore, in the second half of the year, the chemical industry as a whole is in a “cooling down” phase, and the virtual bubble created by various “conceptualized” speculation prices will be digested by the market itself.
From the external environment, the United States is expected to continue to increase the size of the contract, but the actual economic recovery remains weak, the impact of emerging economies is still risky, other major foreign trade zones such as Europe are facing a period of withdrawal of monetary easing, coupled with protectionist barriers Globally, it will continue to exert pressure on the domestic and foreign export situation, and the expected growth rate in the fourth quarter will continue to decline.
It can be seen that in the second half of the year, the domestic macroeconomic growth will continue to be at the bottom of the L-shape, while emerging areas are still insufficient to support effective demand, which can occupy a major proportion. The imbalance in the traditional field structure is difficult to effectively reverse in the short-term, within the chemical industry. The specific industry as a whole will be in a cooling cycle, which will affect the industrial value added data will likely be weak. In the absence of new kinetic energy and consumer growth bright spots, the growth rate of investment in the chemical industry will continue to decline and is likely to continue negative growth. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the focus of the chemical product market will be explored for bottom support. It is likely that the black system will still be the focus. It is expected that the overall destocking cycle will be relatively elongated, and the expectation of corporate profits in the industry will be periodically reduced. The price bubble and the imaginary high profit margin in certain industries will be returned to the market in a rational manner and will be effectively compressed.